The Great HDB Moderation: Navigating the HDB Resale Market in 2026
For the last five years, the HDB resale market has felt less like a housing sector and more like the stock market. We’ve seen record-breaking "million-dollar" transactions nearly doubling, double-digit annual price hikes, and a frantic "fear of missing out" (FOMO) that pushed many families to their financial limits.
However, as of January 2026, the data is clear: the massive boom has ended. The market has entered a phase of stabilization, a "soft landing" engineered by the government through cooling measures and a restored BTO supply pipeline.
Whether you are a seller hoping to "cash out" at peak prices or a buyer waiting for a break, 2026 requires a total recalibration of your strategy. This is no longer the market of 2022. It is a market where prudence, not greed, will determine your success.
Part I: What Caused The Boom (2019–2024)
To understand where we are going, we must first understand why prices climbed by more than 40% in just five years. The "perfect storm" that drove the 2019–2024 rally was built on five main causes:
1. The Enhanced CPF Housing Grant (2019)
Months before the pandemic, the introduction of the Enhanced CPF Housing Grant (EHG) provided a massive liquidity injection. By offering up to $80,000 (later $120,000 in 2024) to first-timers regardless of flat type or location when buying a resale flat, it dramatically boosted the purchasing power of middle-income families. This effectively "lifted the floor" of the market.
2. The COVID-19 Supply Shock
The pandemic crippled construction supply chains, delaying approximately 85% of ongoing BTO projects for up to 9 months. For 43,000 households, the wait for a new flat stretched to 7 years. This forced buyers into the resale market, where they were willing to pay a premium for the certainty of immediate move-in.
3. The "Space Race" and Lifestyle Shifts
Lockdowns turned homes into offices and classrooms. This "Space Race" sparked a demand for larger homes, separate "Zoom Rooms" and study spaces. Demand for 5-room flats and Executive Apartments spiked as families sought to future-proof their living arrangements.
4. The Savings Glut and Low Rates
International border closures forced Singaporeans to save billions typically spent on leisure travel. Flush with "revenge savings" and benefiting from near-zero interest rates (SORA at 0.16% in 2021), buyers had the financial buffer to meet high Cash Over Valuation (COV) demands.
5. The Private Downgrader Effect
Record-high condo prices led private property owners to "right-size" into the HDB market. These cash-rich buyers were price-insensitive, driving the spike of "million-dollar flats" in mature estates like Bishan and Queenstown.
Part II: Why Prices Have Moderated (2025–Present)
The narrative shifted abruptly in 2025. The explosive growth phase has been arrested, evidenced by the Resale Price Index registering 0% growth in Q4 2025—the first instance of stagnation since the pandemic began.
Key drivers of this moderation include:
Successive Cooling Measures: The August 2024 cut to the Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit (from 80% to 75%) for HDB loans reduced the bidding power of mass-market buyers. Meanwhile, the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners successfully cooled demand for larger, premium units.
BTO Supply Restoration: HDB cleared the construction backlog, launching over 102,000 units between 2021 and 202523. Shorter waiting times for BTOs (under 3 years) offered a viable, subsidized alternative to the resale market24.
Market Fatigue: The psychology shifted from FOMO to "Fear of Overpaying" (FOOP). Total resale transactions fell by nearly 10% in 2025 as buyers and sellers reached a standoff over valuations.
Part III: The 2026 Market Outlook: The Supply Tsunami
As we navigate 2026, the most significant factor is the Supply Tsunami. The number of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) is projected to nearly double from the 2025 low of ~7,000 to approximately 13,480 units in 2026.
What to expect in 2026:
Geographic Concentration: Supply surges will be most acute in towns like Bidadari (Toa Payoh), Punggol, Sengkang, and Tampines.
Price Pressure: With more choices, buyers will regain their "bargaining power". Price growth is forecasted to be flat to minimal (0% to 3%).
Interest Rate Reality: While global rates may signal cuts, domestic mortgage stress tests (4.0% to 4.8%) continue to cap loan eligibility, keeping the affordability of buyers in check.
Older Flats Squeeze: Younger buyers will increasingly favor 5-year-old MOP flats over units 30 years or older unless the latter are significantly cheaper.
Part IV: REAL Advice for Buyers and Sellers
In a balanced "Buyer's Market," the aggressive tactics of 2022 are now financial hazards.
For Sellers: Avoid the "Rear-View Mirror" Trap
Pricing Reality: Don't price your unit based on a transaction from six months ago. You are no longer "the only shop on the block"; in 2026, you may be competing with dozens of neighbors selling identical layouts, similar new renovations and views.
Speed Over Premium: In a softening market, holding out for an extra $10,000 can cost you more in holding costs and lost opportunity.
Highlight "Move-In Ready": High renovation costs in 2026 mean buyers will pay more for a clean, well-maintained home that doesn't need much work.
For Buyers: Value Over Hype
Patience is a Virtue: With 13,000+ units hitting the market, "Wait-and-See" is a valid strategy. Monitor listing volumes in your desired estate; motivated sellers will emerge as supply swells.
Focus on Fundamentals: Ignore "million-dollar" headlines—they are statistical outliers. Prioritize the remaining lease, location, your needs and your long-term exit strategy.
Part V: The Property Steward Approach: Building Resilience
As "The Home Steward," I help families move away from the "Property Rat Race". Before making any move in 2026, you must pass two critical tests:
The Resilience Check: Never borrow to your maximum limit just because you can. Borrow based on personal comfort (25-30% MSR/TDSR) and maintain a 12-month liquid cash safety net for mortgage installments.
The "Sleep Better" Test: If an interest rate hike of 0.5% or the loss of one partner's income would keep you awake at night, you cannot afford that home. A home should be a foundation for stability, not a speculative gambling chip.
Conclusion: Need-Driven, Not Greed-Driven
The HDB market of 2026 marks a welcome return to normalization. The window for speculative gains has closed, but the window for prudent, value-based homeownership has opened wide.
Ready to find your "Safe Zone"?
Don't navigate this 2026 alone. If you are a seller, let’s conduct a Property Resilience Audit to see how your unit compares to the incoming competition and ensure your next move is future-proofed for the next decade.
If you are a buyer, let me help you determine your “safe” budget and secure a home for your family’s long term needs
Contact Me for a Consultation – Zero Obligation Needed.
